Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Investment Idea - Sep 2011

Greeting! Last August, we saw US market had a mid correction of about 20% from the high of 12,724 to low of 10,720. At the time I write this mail, US market close at 11,614, seem it's stable right now and we will going to enter the last phase of bull run. The down grade of USD had caused market imbalance where people pull money out from US market and put into Gold market, causing gold price hit record high. Whereas China government tighten the money policy to avoid hot money coming into their country.
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I expect Hong Kong market will move higher if US fund come into Asia in next few months and Asia region will have positive impact. Anyway, always respect the trend, make trend as your best friend, never against it.
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Last month, some clients bought glove stock when the market went down. If I were to buy glove stock, will choose the industry's best performance... in this case, my first choice is Hartalega. The reason is, this is one of the company with profit keep on growing, unlike others glove company where their profit in decreasing trend.
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Some clients bought TENAGA, it's a blue chip counter and almost near the bottom (some snippets about TENAGA). One can buy TENAGA every day to average down if he have a lot of money. What if TENAGA keep on falling in next 1 month, 3 month or 6 month? Since this guy keep on buying TENAGA when the price goes down, his cost will become less and less. If I were to buy TENAGA, I will check with this guy what is his cost for the last 1 months after averaging down. I will only buy when TENAGA's market price is equal or above his cost for last 1 month. (this will avoid buying too soon when the share price keep on falling)
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You may ask how to find this guy to ask for his cost for last 1 month? The answer is simple, take the 30 days Moving Average line compare with current market price, got it? Some also bought CIMB and got stuck there because buying too soon, hence the safer way is using my above method. (*try to record down your trade)
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Last, if you going to buy any stock, at least must meet below 2 conditions:
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1. The company must making profit (profit must stable and keep on increasing is the best)

2. The company must have a dividend policy, distribute the dividend of at least same or better than FD. (It's better to have goose that keeps laying eggs (golder egg is even better) than a goose that sit there and doing nothing.)

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